The normal (normal by means of what I see most in these discussions) ideas for utilitarian action involve a serious assumption that the world will stay relatively like it is; society will stay in place. However, perhaps because I'm younger, I'm inclined to consider a major world change, not necessarily as unusual as stories like X-Men or Book of Eli or Watchmen, but perhaps an advent of personal genetics or war. So what do you think is the most likely major change in human society and what, as utilitarians, can we do to best prepare?

Personally, I am learning basic emergency medical skills and other disaster survival skills so I can survive to steer the new world in the right direction, if it comes to that.

It seems to me that this is the era of biology, and biological warfare or terrorism could drastically alter society. If I pursue a medical career in this area, I could have a 10% chance of doing x 100 good, but if I pursue a business career, I would have a 90% (1 - 10%) chance of doing 10 good, so I should pursue medicine if I believe the likelihood of that being impactful is great enough. The numbers work in this scenario, but any thoughts as to the actual numbers?

Hi,
It sounds like you're thinking about things that could cripple humanity, known as existential risks. I'm wary of speculating, because even if we're right, I doubt we can convince people of it. Because we find it hard to convince people to act even to prevent climate change, which a scientific consensus says will affect us now.

Utilitarians are overall pretty open-minded. Probably moreso than you give them credit for! Even the older ones! Anyway, here's a collection of futurist talks, mostly from non-utilitarians.

Nick Bostrom on mortality, existential risk and transhumanism:

Aubrey de Grey on Immortality

Ray Kurzweil on the Singularity

Julian Savulescu on Transhumanism

David Pearce on Abolitionism


It's unfair to lump these different talks together, of course. But they have one thing in common: they say that if they are right, we'd better do something about it.

Well, what do you think is the most likely of these scenarios and how can we best prepare ourselves?

Right now, I'm trying to decide between medicine and business! I feel medicine could influence with more power, and business could influence with more money. I'm academically interested in both.