how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

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how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2011-08-30T09:32:00

im looking into becoming an insect neurobiologist to research the possibility if insect suffering, my science teacher tells me i wont get funding (maybe i could get vegetarian/vegan charities to fund me though) so i was thinking about what if i got rich and paid other people to do the research? the idea often seems to be tossed around as something very plausible but in reality i imagine youd have to be very lucky, i remember a gwwc video where they were talking about ethical careers and described getting rich and giving as your "baseline career" and then measuring other things from that, what do you guys think? :)
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby yboris on 2011-09-02T22:22:00

I'm a big fan of the "get rich so you can use money for the most effective outcome". Not sure what more to say ;)
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2011-09-03T06:50:00

sorry i didn't explain well, im exploring getting rich and giving but it seems to me you have to be really lucky or related to someone rich to get into these jobs
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby RyanCarey on 2011-09-03T10:37:00

I don't think you would have any trouble getting rich, Ruairi! Just takes hard work and intelligence. The part of your question that's new is the part where you give your money to insect biologists. Now, to you, insect biology is the most important job in the world. Now getting rich and donating is only an option here, if there is someone willing to be paid to competently do this insect biology work. I would imagine the answer is yes.

I mean, let's put it differently. What's harder to find:
1. An insect biology PhD with an interest in consciousness
or 2. Someone to fund their research

I think it's 2. And the point is that as the donor, you can fund PhDs in maybe ten separate labs! What do you think?
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Pat on 2011-09-03T20:10:00

Ruari wrote:the idea often seems to be tossed around as something very plausible but in reality i imagine youd have to be very lucky

Being lucky does help. For example, whether the economy is in recession when someone finishes business school affects her lifetime earnings:
There’s growing evidence that the financial consequences of entering the job market during recession could last from a decade to a lifetime, according several depressing academic studies.

For example, those who took first jobs at such times had to settle for lower salaries and climb more rungs, according to Columbia University economics professor Till von Wachter, University of Toronto economics professor Phil Oreopoulos and Andrew Heisz of Statistics Canada, who studied the fate of Canadian graduating classes of 1982-1999. They found it took some 10 years for the recession-era grads to reach salary parity with grads who entered the workforce in flusher times.

“But if the recession is bad, it can take longer,” von Wachter said.

A lifetime, say. Stanford Business School economics professor Paul Oyer’s research found that MBAs who start investment banking careers during bull markets will earn $1.5 million to $5 million more on average over a career than those who graduate during recessions. Even those who expediently work in other fields temporarily are less likely to ever become investment bankers.

Oyer finds the consequences can last 20 years. That’s why, he said, bankers are not born to work on Wall Street, but made by circumstances.

The state of the economy is probably even more important to the earnings of highly successful entrepreneurs: Fourteen of the richest people in history were Americans born during the 1830s (I wonder how those data were calculated). Luck is also a big factor for the fates of founders of VC-backed start-ups. The average amount a founder of a VC-backed start-up receives is $5.8 million—but three-quarters receive nothing.

startup-value.PNG
Chart showing the distribution of amounts that founders of venture-capital-backed start-up companies receive on exit.
startup-value.PNG (21.47 KiB) Viewed 8521 times


There are certain careers (e.g., radiologist, actuary) for which the distribution of salaries is narrower. But if you're aiming to give millions to charity, though hard work and intelligence are important, luck plays a big role.

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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2011-09-03T23:13:00

RyanCarey wrote:I don't think you would have any trouble getting rich, Ruairi!


haha thanks bro! ;)

RyanCarey wrote:Now, to you, insect biology is the most important job in the world.


i dunno about that but it certainly looks promising :D

i think it looks like a class idea, fund the research, if they cant suffer im still rich and i can donate elsewhere, if they can, publicise the study in the public and specifically the utilitarian, vegan and vegetarian public and then fund people to make painless pesticides and stuff :D!

but to fund a research team id need to be quite rich, it doesnt seem like being a doctor or something else considered welathy would cut it, id need millions, although i could save.

but what kinda careers do you guys have in mind?
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby yboris on 2011-09-09T00:21:00

Well, soon enough, High Impact Careers will open up: http://highimpactcareers.org/ with research about what jobs earn what money, considerations of probability of success, work hours, job satisfaction, etc. There are many lucrative positions out there: investment banking is still going to be more lucrative than a teaching position in a high school, even after the market crashes we've seen and those that may come in the future. Being a corporate lawyer, as long as you come from a fancy university will remain highly lucrative well into the future, I'm sure.

Because how much money (total life-time earning) is riding on the question, it's important to give this decision due research time; I hope you're not yet pressed to make the decision.

How long until you have to decide?
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2011-09-10T14:37:00

thanks that site looks like its gonna be deadly!:D

yboris wrote:How long until you have to decide?


about a year and a half :D

anyone know a ball park kinda figure for how much id need to fund a research team?
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby LadyMorgana on 2011-10-11T14:39:00

Yeah contact the High Impact Career guys :-) Btw the GWWC video you watched was aimed at an audience of Oxford students, so the assumption was that most people listening had a much bigger chance than the average person of getting rich.
"Three passions, simple but overwhelmingly strong, have governed my life: the longing for love, the search for knowledge, and unbearable pity for the suffering of mankind" -- Bertrand Russell, Autobiography
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2011-11-11T09:26:00

would i be right in thinking that this article

http://techcrunch.com/2010/04/24/ditch- ... gle+Reader

suggests that the vast majority of start ups do not receive venture capital?

The reality is that the vast majority of startups don’t receive any VC or angel funding. Ask any VC about how many business plans they receive every month; it is in the thousands. And how many of those companies do they fund? Maybe one or two. Not great odds, are they? My research team did a study of successful companies in a variety of high-growth industries (in which VCs like to invest): those that made it out of the garage and had real products and revenue. We found that only 10.8% of them raised venture capital at any stage of their growth. In other words, nine out of ten didn’t get venture financing. Similarly, only 9.2% received angel financing. Here is another interesting statistic: according to the Venture Economics database, only 4.6% of venture capital went, over the last decade, to startup/seed-stage companies. So even the one in ten that received venture financing likely got this in later stages of its growth, not at the seed stage.

Where did successful companies’ founders get their financing from? Seventy percent used personal savings, 15% took bank loans (probably on their credit cards), and 14% relied on friends and family. (Note: they typically use more than one source for financing.)
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Pat on 2011-11-27T01:18:00

Thanks for the link, Ruairi! If it's true that most start-ups don't receive venture-capital funding, the data in the study by Hall and Woodward that I mentioned are indeed unrepresentative. There are a couple of things worth mentioning about the study that the author of the TechCrunch mentions (direct link: here).

First, it's a survey. The response rate was about 40%, which is low enough to obtain an unrepresentative sample. For example, it could be that the most successful founders didn't want to waste their time filling out a survey.

Second, only 30% of the start-up companies surveyed made computer software or hardware. Eighteen percent were "engineering consultants." There were also medical (4%), defense (4%), energy (4%), biotech (5%), telecom (10%), and "other" (23%) companies. I'm surprised that only 11% received VC funding. I have no idea how someone build a successful defense or biotech business out of personal savings and bank loans. Hall and Woodward also included non-software start-ups, but they broke the data down, and information-technology start-ups did about as well as the group as a whole.

Regarding the TechCrunch article, the author seems to confuse the probability that a start-up received VC funding given that the start-up was successful with the probability that the start-up was successful given that it received VC funding. Even if the author is right that few successful start-ups received VC funding, it's not necessarily the case that the expected earnings of working in a start-up are low. It would be the case, however, that the data from the Hall and Woodward study are unrepresentative.

I hope the kind folks at 80,000 Hours will distill and elucidate the research findings regarding start-ups. It would definitely influence how I spend my time.

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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2011-12-26T21:40:00

thanks pat! was just looking at something else that seemed important to share http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2008/01/top ... z1hg1gTLpb

Venture capitalists are a good place to go for start-up money. Not unless you start a computer or biotech company. Computer hardware and software, semiconductors, communication, and biotechnology account for 81 percent of all venture capital dollars, and seventy-two percent of the companies that got VC money over the past fifteen or so years. VCs only fund about 3,000 companies per year and only about one quarter of those companies are in the seed or start-up stage. In fact, the odds that a start-up company will get VC money are about one in 4,000. That’s worse than the odds that you will die from a fall in the shower.

........

Most entrepreneurs are successful financially. Sorry, this is another myth. Entrepreneurship creates a lot of wealth, but it is very unevenly distributed. The typical profit of an owner-managed business is $39,000 per year. Only the top ten percent of entrepreneurs earn more money than employees. And the typical entrepreneur earns less money than he otherwise would have earned working for someone else.
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Pat on 2012-01-09T01:56:00

VCs only fund about 3,000 companies per year and only about one quarter of those companies are in the seed or start-up stage. In fact, the odds that a start-up company will get VC money are about one in 4,000.

The 1-in-4,000 statistic is vague. Does it mean the chances that any small business will receive VC funding in a given year? Including restaurants and furniture stores in the calculation would make it less useful to us if we're considering tech start-ups. From the same article:
Over the past twenty years or so, about 4.2 percent of all start-ups in the computer and office equipment industry made the Inc 500 list of the fastest growing private companies in the U.S. 0.005 percent of start-ups in the hotel and motel industry and 0.007 percent of start-up eating and drinking establishments made the Inc. 500.

There are good reasons not to be an entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs typically have unrealistic expectations about their chances of success (part of the reason the chance of success is so low). Optimism in the face of disappointing financial results helps entrepreneurs persist. (I'm not an optimist.) Long work days are typical of start-ups, so you'd have less time for other utilitarian activities, such as influencing people.

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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2012-01-09T20:05:00

just came a cross a book that looks good, i think ill read it. the amazon page claims some interesting things


The chances are 6 in a million that an idea for a high-tech business eventually becomes a successful company that goes public

Founder CEOs can expect their stock to be worth about $6.5 million if the company succeeds in going public

On the average, a venture capitalist finances only 6 out of every 1,000 business plans received each year

Bankruptcies occur for 60 percent of the high-tech companies that succeed in getting venture capital


http://www.amazon.com/High-Tech-Start-R ... 068487170X


maybe this is more accurate for tech start ups, but how can only 6 in a million go public if 4.2% are in the Inc 500 list of the fastest growing private companies in the U.S.? or am i reading the data wrong?

one of the reviews says:
It's true that this book is dated. It was written in 1992, and covers NOTHING after 1991, except for thinly disguised attempts to make the book appear more recent- the copyright is 1997, and there are new pages added with info on Yahoo and Netscape.


http://www.amazon.com/review/R3UDQMZAZP ... QMZAZPQK5E

maybe its outdated?
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2012-01-10T19:28:00

susan woodward replied to me about what percentage of start ups might get vc, this is start ups in general not just tech

Susan Woodward wrote:We don't have any idea, but we can put some bounds on the figure. You can learn from the US Census Business Dynamics that there are about 800,000 new businesses started each year (this from tax return data -- do you think would-be entrepreneurs would deduct their startup expenses? If yes, then they get into this data).

Most of these will be businesses started by people who intend to run a small, self-employed and non-growing operation (car repair, beauty shop, restaurant, dentists and doctors, lawyers, etc), so most will not be intending to grow. (There are at present about 13.5 million people who are self-employed, of which 4.5 million have payroll.) Breakouts by industry (which are very coarse) indicate there are 200,000 new businesses in services (no other sector could include what venture firms try to do, except possibly manufacturing, and these are very few).

Probably only a fraction of these seek venture money, but this puts a ceiling on the number who could possibly seek venture funding.

There are only about 7,500 venture-funded firms, and only about 1,700 new ones each year. This is not a definitive answer, but perhaps it is a start.


does she mean that vc funding only happens in the services sector?


EDIT:

carl shulman posted on the 80k blog about all this http://80000hours.org/blog/12

and jeff kaufman (is he on this forum?) has some good comments on his blog post http://www.jefftk.com/news/2011-10-06.html
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Brian Tomasik on 2012-01-13T08:51:00

Thanks, Ruairi!

The chances are 6 in a million that an idea for a high-tech business eventually becomes a successful company that goes public

I haven't read the book (yet -- it was on my to-read list as well), but talking about "6 in a million ideas" becoming successful companies sounds potentially sophistical. You can claim that any number of ideas never are acted upon, so the "number of ideas per startup attempt" could be anything.

Way to go contacting Susan Woodward! And thanks for the links to pieces by Carl and Jeff. (Coincidentally, Jeff and I were course-mates in college, even though our interests in these topics are otherwise rather independent.)
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2012-01-30T19:46:00

Pat wrote:I hope the kind folks at 80,000 Hours will distill and elucidate the research findings regarding start-ups. It would definitely influence how I spend my time.


@pat: i think i remember you saying somewhere else that if its neccesary to be really really smart to do this it would affect how you currently spend your time, i was talking to carl shulman of 80k last night and id found out that the kinda grades i get probably put me in the top 4-5% academically (or maybe higher if i push myself) , he didnt seem to think that was really smart enough to go for this (although actually maybe he was including other factors though i cant think what they might be given that he doesnt know me well) , OR i banking, he suggested maybe medicine or law if i wanted to make money. at least thats what i understood from what he said, i dont wanna mis-quote him or anything,

anyway if you havnt already id totally get in touch with 80k before you invest a lot of time
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Simon Knutsson on 2012-01-31T20:50:00

Hi Ruairi,

Thanks for starting this thread. I'm new at Felicifia and I thought I'd just add my experience for what its worth.

I'm from Sweden, 28y, and about to finish my MS in econ. In essence, used to think a lot quantitively about how to have an impact with my work, and I still think such analysis is important, but now I also put much more weight on my emotions.

My reasoning about how to do the most good influenced me e.g. to move to New York to work for GiveWell, but I think I've noticed that my performance, and thus how successful or rich I'll become, seems to depend a lot on how I feel about factors such as the city I work in, working hours, travel time, specific tasks at work, and colleagues (and don't get me wrong, the work and ppl at GiveWell are great, I just mean these factors in general).

I've now stopped working for GiveWell and moved back to Sweden, and because I'm about to finish my degree, I'm interviewing with many employers. When now picking a career, I try to feel and put much weight on what I need to have to be happy, and then I consider what options are compatible with that. I no longer buy that believing that I'm close to maximizing utility will motivate me enough to perform.

So I try to do a lot of things to get a feel for how happy and energetic I'd feel at different work places, e.g. i schedule meetings with people there in non-recruiting positions. You may consider my point obvious, of course it matters if one is happy, but my point is that I put perhaps surprisingly much weight on it for someone whose so interested in doing good.

Hope this is useful. Best /Simon

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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2012-01-31T22:22:00

hey simon!:D! cool, thanks very much for that. its really cool to hear peoples experiences. especially your particular one as i think its something i dont usually consider as much as i should!

could you tell us anything about how much one might expect to make and what kind of qualities you think are neccesary? or being above a certain g.p.a or academic percentile or something?

thanks!
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Simon Knutsson on 2012-02-01T08:35:00

Hey Ruairi,

I'm not the one to ask about earnings or requirements for different careers, especially not in the US. But I can share some stories that I think are illuminating.

Management consulting: My grades and scores has probably gotten me to interviews, but when actually there, it seems one needs to be good at the specific interview technique (the case interviews). I know someone at McKinsey that applied to more firms than he was interested in and scheduled the interviews so that he had the ones he was least interested in first, so that he got a lot of real practice before he got to the most prestigious firms. He also practiced case techniques with his class mates at university, and read books about case interviews. See e.g. http://www.amazon.com/Case-Point-Comple ... 0971015848. Of course, one also needs to develop good presentation and people skills.

Finance: I talked to an investment firm in Sweden. They said they have employed someone whose CV was not that impressive, but who spent his spare time doing business in a different field. So the person had shown that he had a passion for finding profit opportunities.

Sales/trade: I spoke to a firm involved in global trade. In the conversation, they tried to find out if I was too soft, or if I was hard/manipulative enough to get good deals with seasoned business people (they said one needs to be a bit manipulative). They also discussed my past, e.g. my painting that I did many years ago, and asked if I painted to make business or for some other reason.

Consulting (not management consulting): I was at an interview for a global consulting firm. Almost the first question they asked was: "Say you were to start in a few weeks and your first project required spending one year at a location in another part of Sweden. You would have the opportunity to travel back to Gothenburg on Friday night and stay in Gothenburg over each weekend. Would that be OK?" I roughly said "no, my girlfriend lives in Gothenburg, she can't move, and it would be too long to commute like that for a whole year." End of interview basically.

I don't know how much weight to put on the following advice, but I share it anyway. I recently spoke with someone in the private sector, I think he owns or runs a business. He's about to retire and said that you can make a lot of money in so many different fields, it's about finding the work that you really enjoy doing. This advice makes a lot of sense, considering that when you compete with other people about being good at your work, either for having an impact through the work or for making money to donate, you probably compete with smart people with good training, and it should be hard for you to excel if they on top of their skills love what they do while you don't.

/Simon

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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Brian Tomasik on 2012-02-01T10:20:00

Simon says:

...a lot of great points. :)

I think a good way to inform decisions about startups and i-banking is not just to know whether your grades are good enough, but also to know whether it's something you could enjoy doing. From reading books like Monkey Business, I concluded that I probably wouldn't be able to survive in a classical i-banking job. (I do think a quant finance job would have suited me pretty well, though.) Management consulting tends to earn less and so isn't as compelling an option, but there, too, I decided that frequent travel and presentations would not be my idea of a good time.
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Re: how easy/hard is it to get rich and give?

Postby Ruairi on 2012-03-01T17:14:00

agh I missed the replies here for some reason!

thanks simon and alan:D! I dont think I would (much) like i banking but if i could make a lot of money it might be worth it as I think (from what I know of it) that I could do it, I dunno if im smart enough though.
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