His argument's key failing, IMO, is the assumption that someone believing something ipso facto increases the probability that that thing is true.
I wouldn't say it's ipso facto. Rather, in most cases the fact that people believe X is Bayesian evidence for X, because "lots of people believe X" is a fact about the world that needs explaining, and the explanation "people believe X because they discovered that it's true" is relatively clean and compact. But there are certainly exceptions to this general principle. And there are definitely other factors that count against Christianity, including some Biblical suggestions of the concept of a flat earth as RyanCarey mentioned.
Certainly if God was omnibenevolent and omnipotent, which are both central to Christianity, utility would be positive infinite no matter what you do. As such, if you're going to use pascal's wager, it would have to be for a religion with an omnipotent, but not omnibenevolent god.
I agree. God is almost certainly not a utilitarian; the problem of evil, for instance, makes that implausible. A sometimes angry and occasionally violent God like Yahweh of the Old Testament seems more likely. Moreover, even if we thought God was a utilitarian, it would be almost impossible to make a Pascalian hell-based argument for being in him because a utilitarian God wouldn't have a hell.
If there are aleph null QALYs of positive utility, and aleph null QALYs of negative utility, wouldn't they be necessarily equal?
Yes, that's (formally) true. Similarly, if there are aleph-null positive QALYs, then any finite (or even aleph-null-sized infinite) increase in QALYs "makes no difference". Of course, Cantor's cardinal numbers aren't the only way to represent infinity. Nick Bostrom's excellent "Infinite Ethics" discusses a number of options, including hyperreal numbers:
http://www.nickbostrom.com/ethics/infinite.pdfI'd really like to see more research on this topic.
His argument's key failing, IMO, is the assumption that someone believing something ipso facto increases the probability that that thing is true.
I wouldn't say it's ipso facto. Rather, in most cases the fact that people believe X is Bayesian evidence for X, because "lots of people believe X" is a fact about the world that needs explaining, and the explanation "people believe X because they discovered that it's true" is relatively clean and compact. But there are certainly exceptions to this general principle. And there are definitely other factors that count against Christianity, including some Biblical suggestions of the concept of a flat earth as RyanCarey mentioned.