by The future has countless possibilities. Some trends on the other hand are keeping strong and some would describe as highly probable to continue into the near future. Such trends may include the legality of gay marriage in the developed world or the decline of religion or the general decline of archaic social traits, but predicting 200 years into the future is very difficult, but I think it's easy to say that we can at least look at current trend's and long-term trends from the past continuing into the future through the present and also look at how trends of today that are similar to trends of the past are affected at least slightly in their probabilistic outcome in how events occurred in the past under similar mechanism.
This following thread is quite long but it's long as I wish to make the best argument I can for a utilitarian future but doing so requires a lot of words.
Continual trends of the contemporary & modern era
In analyzing the facts, there has been a huge amount of socio-political progress since the 18th-19th centuries through the 20th and into the early 21st century. It doesn't take much for one to realize that moral progress and progress of any kind was very slow in most parts of the world prior to the 1700s and after the fall of Rome. Of course some parts such as Ancient Chinese Dynasties & Pan-American civilizations saw some levels of substantial progress between c. 6th century to the 18th century but for the world as a whole, no 300 year period and indeed it could be said no previous 3000 year period seen nearly as much progress scientifically, technologically and changes socially in values & beliefs in the last 300 years.
I would argue that such profound and sudden social changes are no doubt due to scientific & technological advancements. With science, irrational justifications of injustice do not stand as strong and some die off completely, with science cures for diseases can be found, with technology communication for justice campaigners to spread their idea's & virtues is easier, with technology transportation also increases the spread of justice campaigning and with technology knowledge & idea's to question the status quo is far more within the grasp of the individual. I would state that this is all evidence that the scientific & technological progress of the 18th, 19th, 20th & early 21st centuries are clearly very key to extraordinary level of social change we have seen. But what has this social change been? And is it more utilitarian?
Pro-Utilitarian progress during the last 300 years
One of the first major social changes of the previous 300 years has been the abolition of slavery. Slavery was abolished through most of what is now the developed world during the 19th century. The last countries abolished it in the 20th. Was the abolition of the particular slavery that existed in the Atlantic slave trade good in the eyes of a utilitarian? Most probably yes. Slavery resulted in trivial gains for many (though mostly for the plantation owners & slave "owners") at the expense of a lifetime of suffering for another many. It seems easy to conclude therefore that the abolition of slavery was a utilitarian change. Most I assume would agree. But of course the question may arise as to whether society shifted it's views on slavery on the basis of morals that are more utilitarian or at least that this change would arouse a more utilitarian-like society? Most people came to the conclusion that their suffering could not be justified for our trivial gains and that belief in itself is very much utilitarian. Moving forward to a decline in racism entirely, that belief as an extension to the abolitionist view, holds that human beings are of equal value inherently because we have equal internal capacities and so that race is morally irrelevant. Most people who stand against racism do not think of it in that deep a manner but that is the morality they are inferring & living/acting on the basis of and that seems to be a sort of unconscious consequentially-relevant utilitarianism. (Leaping forward a moment, an unconscious utilitarian order could be obtained by means of abolishing suffering because we come to love feeling ultra-happy and put behind all past sentimentality for selfish reasons yet in an advanced wealthy world our selfishness would be buying justice for all).
The legality of women's suffrage again is letting go of old archaic morals for a more morally inherent belief system that assumes inherent morally-relevant capacities are what count. Again society may no think of it that deeply but that's what letting go of sexism or any discrimination means.
Trend in Utilitarian Morals
Asking if the world is utilitarian and if the world is becoming utilitarian are two different questions. On the one hand we are becoming ever more moral on the basis of morally relevant capacities. We are letting go of racism, sexism, homophobia and even making beginner steps to letting go of speciesism. By simply holding value in animal welfare (as most developed world governments/societies do, unlike they did say 200 years ago) that shows that speciesism is already in decline. On the other hand were making the environment worse everyday. It seems as though we are very non-utilitarian in being so environmentally unsound, but looking at the trends, we have a trend towards greener and more renewable energy. Of course it is not lie that thing's could go horribly wrong over the next century if we do not act fast enough and if we are not unlucky enough as to not survive the coming global crises (I say unlucky as a statement that perhaps we have a slight but not overwhelming probability that we will survive though I am not going to state a probability as that is too hard to tell).
But assuming we do survive the next 100 years and continue to progress & trends continue in a roughly similar way as they have in the last 100 years into the next 100, how might the world look? Trends of the last 100 years that continue today suggest we would probably be more morally inherent in our virtues. That means less sentimental and more inherent/intrinsic. This seems to me to be a more utilitarian society. A society that I would argue is far more focused on inherent moral worth. A society that is less traditional, a society that is open to more crazy liberal way's of life.
Theoretical routes to a utilitarian future
In conclusion, here are some theoretical ways that is could be possible for the state of the world as it is plus current trends plus time lead to a utilitarian future;
Based on trends we can expect a more intrinsic-valuing society, a less conventional and far more technological and theoretically transhuman society (especially considering it's economic efficiency once prejudice is overcomed which is the trend of the past 300 years) that is like to enjoy very positive sensations produced by computers for leisure. Out of this society it seems to me not too inconceivable for a continual growth in open-mindedness towards inherent moral values that will mix with the sheer pleasure and emotional motivation and convincingly powerful experience of hyper-positive digital sensations which are likely to be creatable in the next century or so (as it is something people would enjoy so much and something that is arguably technically possible hence there is little reason why investment to create & commercialize this won't exist in the future) will provide a push towards a more utilitarian way of living (whether society is conscious of it that way or just want's to indulge in super happiness for selfish reasons).
The danger with an unconsciously created utilitarian civilization is that nonhumans may not be included. But an argument that they will is based on the logic that speciesism is on the decline and by the time such hyper-happiness may exist, it's conceivable that society would have virtually let go of speciesism, if it's decline continues and especially looking at how all past discrimination's have declined there's reason to conclude that it will continue if scientific, technologically & perhaps more importantly affluenical/economic progress continues at an overall long-term steadily rate. If we are talking about a scenario were humanity wants to indulge within the self's want for ultra-pleasure, it's probable that such a transition wouldn't happen so fast as to make moral considerations completely ignored, especially in a hyper-moral society (relative to the past and based on current trends) hence it would be probable in my opinion that such a course would lead to the abolition of suffering for all beings on earth. Then of course there is the more unlikely scenario in my opinion of humanity becoming fully utilitarian on it's own selfless rationality.
I know this thread was long & complicated but I wanted to present any logic & evidence I could in favor of a potential utilitarian future. Any thoughts regarding this post?
This following thread is quite long but it's long as I wish to make the best argument I can for a utilitarian future but doing so requires a lot of words.
Continual trends of the contemporary & modern era
In analyzing the facts, there has been a huge amount of socio-political progress since the 18th-19th centuries through the 20th and into the early 21st century. It doesn't take much for one to realize that moral progress and progress of any kind was very slow in most parts of the world prior to the 1700s and after the fall of Rome. Of course some parts such as Ancient Chinese Dynasties & Pan-American civilizations saw some levels of substantial progress between c. 6th century to the 18th century but for the world as a whole, no 300 year period and indeed it could be said no previous 3000 year period seen nearly as much progress scientifically, technologically and changes socially in values & beliefs in the last 300 years.
I would argue that such profound and sudden social changes are no doubt due to scientific & technological advancements. With science, irrational justifications of injustice do not stand as strong and some die off completely, with science cures for diseases can be found, with technology communication for justice campaigners to spread their idea's & virtues is easier, with technology transportation also increases the spread of justice campaigning and with technology knowledge & idea's to question the status quo is far more within the grasp of the individual. I would state that this is all evidence that the scientific & technological progress of the 18th, 19th, 20th & early 21st centuries are clearly very key to extraordinary level of social change we have seen. But what has this social change been? And is it more utilitarian?
Pro-Utilitarian progress during the last 300 years
One of the first major social changes of the previous 300 years has been the abolition of slavery. Slavery was abolished through most of what is now the developed world during the 19th century. The last countries abolished it in the 20th. Was the abolition of the particular slavery that existed in the Atlantic slave trade good in the eyes of a utilitarian? Most probably yes. Slavery resulted in trivial gains for many (though mostly for the plantation owners & slave "owners") at the expense of a lifetime of suffering for another many. It seems easy to conclude therefore that the abolition of slavery was a utilitarian change. Most I assume would agree. But of course the question may arise as to whether society shifted it's views on slavery on the basis of morals that are more utilitarian or at least that this change would arouse a more utilitarian-like society? Most people came to the conclusion that their suffering could not be justified for our trivial gains and that belief in itself is very much utilitarian. Moving forward to a decline in racism entirely, that belief as an extension to the abolitionist view, holds that human beings are of equal value inherently because we have equal internal capacities and so that race is morally irrelevant. Most people who stand against racism do not think of it in that deep a manner but that is the morality they are inferring & living/acting on the basis of and that seems to be a sort of unconscious consequentially-relevant utilitarianism. (Leaping forward a moment, an unconscious utilitarian order could be obtained by means of abolishing suffering because we come to love feeling ultra-happy and put behind all past sentimentality for selfish reasons yet in an advanced wealthy world our selfishness would be buying justice for all).
The legality of women's suffrage again is letting go of old archaic morals for a more morally inherent belief system that assumes inherent morally-relevant capacities are what count. Again society may no think of it that deeply but that's what letting go of sexism or any discrimination means.
Trend in Utilitarian Morals
Asking if the world is utilitarian and if the world is becoming utilitarian are two different questions. On the one hand we are becoming ever more moral on the basis of morally relevant capacities. We are letting go of racism, sexism, homophobia and even making beginner steps to letting go of speciesism. By simply holding value in animal welfare (as most developed world governments/societies do, unlike they did say 200 years ago) that shows that speciesism is already in decline. On the other hand were making the environment worse everyday. It seems as though we are very non-utilitarian in being so environmentally unsound, but looking at the trends, we have a trend towards greener and more renewable energy. Of course it is not lie that thing's could go horribly wrong over the next century if we do not act fast enough and if we are not unlucky enough as to not survive the coming global crises (I say unlucky as a statement that perhaps we have a slight but not overwhelming probability that we will survive though I am not going to state a probability as that is too hard to tell).
But assuming we do survive the next 100 years and continue to progress & trends continue in a roughly similar way as they have in the last 100 years into the next 100, how might the world look? Trends of the last 100 years that continue today suggest we would probably be more morally inherent in our virtues. That means less sentimental and more inherent/intrinsic. This seems to me to be a more utilitarian society. A society that I would argue is far more focused on inherent moral worth. A society that is less traditional, a society that is open to more crazy liberal way's of life.
Theoretical routes to a utilitarian future
In conclusion, here are some theoretical ways that is could be possible for the state of the world as it is plus current trends plus time lead to a utilitarian future;
Based on trends we can expect a more intrinsic-valuing society, a less conventional and far more technological and theoretically transhuman society (especially considering it's economic efficiency once prejudice is overcomed which is the trend of the past 300 years) that is like to enjoy very positive sensations produced by computers for leisure. Out of this society it seems to me not too inconceivable for a continual growth in open-mindedness towards inherent moral values that will mix with the sheer pleasure and emotional motivation and convincingly powerful experience of hyper-positive digital sensations which are likely to be creatable in the next century or so (as it is something people would enjoy so much and something that is arguably technically possible hence there is little reason why investment to create & commercialize this won't exist in the future) will provide a push towards a more utilitarian way of living (whether society is conscious of it that way or just want's to indulge in super happiness for selfish reasons).
The danger with an unconsciously created utilitarian civilization is that nonhumans may not be included. But an argument that they will is based on the logic that speciesism is on the decline and by the time such hyper-happiness may exist, it's conceivable that society would have virtually let go of speciesism, if it's decline continues and especially looking at how all past discrimination's have declined there's reason to conclude that it will continue if scientific, technologically & perhaps more importantly affluenical/economic progress continues at an overall long-term steadily rate. If we are talking about a scenario were humanity wants to indulge within the self's want for ultra-pleasure, it's probable that such a transition wouldn't happen so fast as to make moral considerations completely ignored, especially in a hyper-moral society (relative to the past and based on current trends) hence it would be probable in my opinion that such a course would lead to the abolition of suffering for all beings on earth. Then of course there is the more unlikely scenario in my opinion of humanity becoming fully utilitarian on it's own selfless rationality.
I know this thread was long & complicated but I wanted to present any logic & evidence I could in favor of a potential utilitarian future. Any thoughts regarding this post?
