Against cryonics advocacy

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Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T17:49:00

Every now and again I get into discussion with transhumanists about why I don't think anyone should advocate cryonics. The latest is the most extensive such discussion, so I thought I'd post the relevant parts here in case anyone else is interested, and for my future reference.

For context, this began as a discussion of Massimo Pigliucci's remark at the very end of this post that transhumanist's idea of uploading was 'a form of dualism', segued into a criticism of Less Wrongers' apparent views on personal identity, then into the conversation below:



Arepo wrote:
Tarn Somervell Fletcher wrote:As to the 'preoccupation' that LWers have with uploading and cryonics, you may as well talk about the 'preoccupation' a cancer patient might have with a potential cure.

Re the cryonic vs cancer treatment comparison, I agree there’s little difference in principle (though that could show that people seeking cancer treatment are irrational rather than the reverse), but there’s are *huge* practical differences:

* Cancer treatment may be an inefficient use of resources all things being equal, but if you’re an active utilitarian who’d go on to do a lot of good, it could easily be worthwhile. Cryonics uses up far more resources, probably for less expected gain.
* If cancer treatment works, it potentially saves a lot of grief for family and friends. If cryonics works, they still suffer the same.
* Cancer treatment is already socially accepted and integrated into developed world healthcare, so there’s no desperate need to change the status quo (assuming we do think it’s a good thing). Cryonics is not, and trying to integrate it better into society uses up time and resources that could have been spent on higher expectation activities (eg Givewell/GWWC charities, wild animal suffering, SIAI, longevity research or whatever you think is the best current use of resources)
* If you, qua the motivated and intelligent utilitarian, are thinking about cancer treatment, you’re thinking about using up resources to maintain a world with a relatively intelligent and benign person. If you’re thinking about a future world where technology has progressed to the degree that they can reanimate you, they’re likely to have a lot of eugenic/GM/behavioural/other ways of improving their people, so your expected impact on the mean intelligence/altruism of the population is much lower – potentially negative.


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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T18:31:00

TSF wrote:I was speaking more in terms of *Person seeking to avoid death* rather than any utilitarian calculation about what does the most good. Everyone I've spoken to/read on this issue agrees that, say, donating the money to an efficient and effective charity would *much* better maximize utility (ignoring considerations about the possibility of a cryopreserved person living much longer and other specialized arguments, anyway.)
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T18:36:00

Arepo wrote:Right, but that's what my third bullet is about. I'm not going to condemn someone for doing what they can to stave off something they fear (even if the only way in which is makes sense is the emotional satisfaction they get before they die).

On the other hand I have no time at all for people who think the desperate scrabble their selfish irrationality leads to is such a noble pursuit that *they* should condemn anyone who doesn't support it. See eg essays on the ‘hostile wife phenomenon’ http://www.evidencebasedcryonics.org/is ... -cryonics/ or Robin Hanson’s ‘Philosophy Kills’ http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/p ... kills.html
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T18:42:00

TSF wrote:
Arepo wrote:On the other hand I have no time at all for people who think the desperate scrabble their selfish irrationality

Selfish? Perhaps, although it's not exactly in the normal use of the word - again, is a cancer patient searching for a cure selfish?
But irrational? How?

...

with the hostile wife example - are you criticizing the 'husband' or the 'wife'?

Arepo wrote:Cancer treatment is already socially accepted and integrated into developed world healthcare, so there’s no desperate need to change the status quo

Are you saying that if it wasn't, we shouldn't try to change the status quo? Are you saying that a cancer patient in a society where this is not true is wrong to seek treatment?
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T18:43:00

Arepo wrote:
TSF wrote:Are you saying that if it wasn't, we shouldn't try to change the status quo? Are you saying that a cancer patient in a society where this is not true is wrong to seek treatment?

You’ll never catch me using the word ‘wrong’* (for much the reasons Eliezer writes that we should ‘taboo our words’). But in in a society otherwise like this one it would clearly be counter to utilitarian goals to advocate such a change, yes.

*Forgot at the time to add the caveat 'in careful ethical discussion', before anyone gotchas me ;)

TSF wrote:with the hostile wife example - are you criticizing the 'husband' or the 'wife'?


The people who criticise the wife. Ie the authors of those two pieces, and the LWers/cryonics advocates who support them.

TSF wrote:Selfish? Perhaps, although it's not exactly in the normal use of the word - again, is a cancer patient searching for a cure selfish?

Why not? It’s a question of scale. Someone who’s willing to trade huge amounts of overall utility for small amounts of personal gain (eg a tyrant) is generally called selfish. Someone who trades unfavourably but significantly less so – eg someone who buys an ice-cream rather than donating the money to charity - normally isn’t. Both of them are clearly doing something un-utilitarian, so the only relevant issue for us is whether it’s worth the cost of trying to get them to improve their behaviour. In the ice-cream case it obviously isn’t, not least because it would make us all visibly hypocritical (which in turn would reduce our expected influence), in the dictator case it might sometimes be.

In the case of cryonics it might also be, not so much because it’s on the same scale as being a tyrant but because such people are in greater contact with and more likely to care about the opinion and argument of the rest of us.

But it’s clearly a terrible idea to pay an opportunity cost of trying to persuade people to change their behaviour for the worse - which is exactly what cryonic advocacy is.

TSF wrote:But irrational? How?

Once one accepts the deflationary view of personal identity you claim LWers hold, any attempt to ‘prolong your lifespan’ is incoherent. Who is this ‘you’ who’s lifespan you’re prolonging? The only gain ‘you’ get from it – even if it works – is reduced fear of death in this lifetime. Once you’re frozen, the risk of such negative feelings is gone, so it would harm no-one if your brain was quietly tipped into local landfill.

So rational cryonics advocates would gain as much by advocating (or rather trying to effect) instead the illusion of cryonics without the opportunity cost of actually preserving someone for a decade. But they’d probably do far better by looking for other techniques to reduce our fear of death – and better still to accept that a few people will suffer a bit from it for the time being and entirely redirect their efforts to effective altruism.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T18:50:00

TSF wrote:
Arepo wrote:Why not? It’s a question of scale. Someone who’s willing to trade huge amounts of overall utility for small amounts of personal gain (eg a tyrant) is generally called selfish. Someone who trades unfavourably but significantly less so – eg someone who buys an ice-cream rather than donating the money to charity - normally isn’t. Both of them are clearly doing something un-utilitarian, so the only relevant issue for us is whether it’s worth the cost of trying to get them to improve their behaviour. In the ice-cream case it obviously isn’t, not least because it would make us all visibly hypocritical (which in turn would reduce our expected influence), in the dictator case it might sometimes be.

In the case of cryonics it might also be, not so much because it’s on the same scale as being a tyrant but because such people are in greater contact with and more likely to care about the opinion and argument of the rest of us.


OK, I don't really have a problem with that so long as you're willing to extend that same label to cancer patients, which obviously you are. Consider that objection retracted.


Arepo wrote:But it’s clearly a terrible idea to pay an opportunity cost of trying to persuade people to change their behaviour for the worse - which is exactly what cryonic advocacy is

I would disagree with you on that. I'm not entirely sure why you think signing up for cryonics is a change for the worse. Could you state that explicitly?
Arepo wrote:Once one accepts the deflationary view of personal identity you claim LWers hold, any attempt to ‘prolong your lifespan’ is incoherent. Who is this ‘you’ who’s lifespan you’re prolonging? The only gain ‘you’ get from it – even if it works – is reduced fear of death in this lifetime. Once you’re frozen, the risk of such negative feelings is gone, so it would harm no-one if your brain was quietly tipped into local landfill.

You mistake my word, I think. The 'you' of 10 minutes ago and of 10 minutes in the future is still you. Cryonics advocates maintain that the difference between Time of preservation{You{ and Post-revival{You} is small (in the same sense that the difference between Present{You} and ~10min{You} is small, though to different degrees perhaps), therefore, you *are* the same person.

Arepo wrote:You’ll never catch me using the word ‘wrong’* (for much the reasons Eliezer writes that we should ‘taboo our words’). But in in a society otherwise like this one it would clearly be counter to utilitarian goals to advocate such a change, yes.

Which utilitarian goals?

Arepo wrote:If you think otherwise, then I don't think you fully understand utilitarian reasoning.

Or perhaps you don't fully understand the subject. As I said before, please state this part explicitly.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T18:52:00

Arepo wrote:
TSF wrote:I would disagree with you on that. I'm not entirely sure why you think signing up for cryonics is a change for the worse. Could you state that explicitly?


Let me weaken this claim, since it obviously depends on the counterfactual. An average person does so little good with their money that it’s conceivable that their mean spending will be worse than the happiness they’d gain from cryonics. (I don’t actually think that it is, given that the people we’re talking about are people who someone’s trying to talk *into* cryonics, therefore people who don’t a priori expect to gain much serenity from it – but for the sake of argument I’ll assume it could well be)

An average consequentialist, one hopes, achieves far more with their time and money than an average person, an average utilitarian even more so. Even if – say – 95% of their efforts are basically selfish, or at least self-directed, the good they can do by carefully redirecting that 5% is potentially enormous. Since signing up for cryonics is going to reduce the total of which that 5% is a proportion, it’s going to be detrimental. Unless the utility they gain from signing up is both higher than the detriment of that reduction and higher than anything which they might have done instead, that signup was a change for the worse.

Since most LWers are consequentialists, and a fair proportion utilitarians, the latter group is the relevant one.

TSF wrote:‘You mistake my word, I think. The 'you' of 10 minutes ago and of 10 minutes in the future is still you.’


This is a bizarre claim, that only derives any sense it might have from fudging the language. Is 10cm from here also ‘here’, simply because there exist many greater distances from here which an arbitrary point might be?

Sure for some purposes it’s a passable heuristic to answer ‘yes’, but when speaking philosophically, given that we can easily answer more accurately, we might as well do so. So 10 cm from here is not here – it’s 10cm away. And the person who had my name and existed 10 minutes ago is not me - it's the person who had my name and existed 10 minutes ago.

Clearly [person who had my name and existed 10 minutes minutes ago] can’t be preserved or prolonged by cryonic suspension, since he’s already vanished. The closest thing to bringing him back and prolonging him would be a precise simulation of him that runs forever that state, but what was so special about the properties he had that he’s worth doing that for?

TSF wrote:Which utilitarian goals?


Maximizing utility. *The* utilitarian goal, I should say.

TSF wrote:Or perhaps you don't fully understand the subject. As I said before, please state this part explicitly.


A pure utilitarian, qua one who seeks to maximise utility, has the choice of behaving in any way that (s)he expects to maximise utility. Given the unbounded amount of expectation space, that’s probably a ‘choice’ of precisely one path. Doing anything else, however briefly, carries the opportunity cost of not having taken that path, for as long as the ‘anything else’ takes.

Sure an actual utilitarian-leaning human will have human foibles which they’ll satisfice/balance against the dictums of pure utilitarianism, but those are a different question.*

What we’re discussing here is not cryonics per se, it’s the behaviour of cryonics advocacy. But if cryonics is not an extremely utilitarian activity, it’s extremely unlikely that advocating it will be one, when there are numerous other ultra-high-expectation activities out there.

In a world where cancer treatment was looked down upon, if it was otherwise like this one, those alternative activities would still be available, so cancer-treatment advocacy would still look very poor by comparison (and, incidentally, might actually have negative expectation – see http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2012/ ... ctors-die/).

If you don’t consider counterfactuals when thinking about whether you’d do something (or rather, to the degree you don’t), you can’t be said to be behaving consistently with utilitarianism.

*Albeit one which can be answered similarly. To the degree that you’re looking out for yourself (in the colloquial sense) and those you love, you might as well follow the optimal way of doing so. Cryonics *advocacy* is unlikely to be that way. As far as I can see, the only substantial benefit it has to oneself is signalling to other LWers/transhumanists.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T18:52:00

Lance Bush wrote:
Arepo wrote:Once one accepts the deflationary view of personal identity you claim LWers hold, any attempt to ‘prolong your lifespan’ is incoherent. Who is this ‘you’ who’s lifespan you’re prolonging?


Exactly. Any LW'ers who remain motivated by cryonics for these reasons are exhibiting a weird, unmotivated, anti-utilitarian inconsistency in their views which DOES make me suspicious that they have quasi-dualistic confusions lurking beneath their explicitly stated views. I don't actually think they are dualists, but I do think endorsing cryonics is objectionable on utilitarian grounds.

(The 'you' of 10 minutes ago and of 10 minutes in the future is still you. Cryonics advocates maintain that the difference between Time of preservation{You{ and Post-revival{You} is small (in the same sense that the difference between Present{You} and ~10min{You} is small, though to different degrees perhaps), therefore, you *are* the same person.)

You say that "you *are" the same person"; yes, by this definition you are, but the sense in which you are the "same person" doesn't seem to me to be a reason to act with *special* regard for that person that's "me" at all. What the hell makes future persons that are similar to you so much more important than other future people that aren't you that the former justifies so much investment of resources at the expense of the interests of the latter? There doesn't seem to be to be any motivating sense in which these people that "are the same person as me" should matter.

If aliens were producing exact copies of me on another planet right now, freezing them, and unfreezing them a week from now, a year from now, etc.; those unfrozen me's would be more me now than the future me's causally connected to this particular body. Yet despite being "me", such copies pull no moral weight than any other people on earth. Why should I be particularly concerned with how similar certain people are to me at present? I don't care about those hypothetical copies any more than I care about random people on earth who are in no coherent sense "me", so why should I care about preserving future me's through cryopreservation?

The sense in which it's "still you" shouldn't be remotely motivating to anyone who takes a deflationary view of personal identity seriously. It's still "me" only in the sense that this future person is more similar to the me of the present. Why the HELL should that matter? It's a totally bizarre form of partiality: preference to act in the interests of future persons that incidentally happen to be a lot like me. I can't help but see that as nothing short of irrational narcissism that fails to really appreciate a deflationary view of personal identity.

I suspect essentialist/dualist motivations lurk behind the inclinations people have to pursue cryopreservation. It's a silly, unmotivated activity, and this diluted use of the term "you" strikes me as impotent to motivate me to act with special regard for those future people that are "me". That it nonetheless seems reasonable to people on LW is one of the instances in which I depart from the consensus there.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T19:05:00

TSF wrote:
Arepo wrote:Sure for some purposes it’s a passable heuristic to answer ‘yes’, but when speaking philosophically, given that we can easily answer more accurately, we might as well do so. So 10 cm from here is not here – it’s 10cm away. And the person who had my name and existed 10 minutes ago is not me - it's the person who had my name and existed 10 minutes ago.

Clearly [person who had my name and existed 10 minutes minutes ago] can’t be preserved or prolonged by cryonic suspension, since he’s already vanished. The closest thing to bringing him back and prolonging him would be a precise simulation of him that runs forever that state, but what was so special about the properties he had that he’s worth doing that for?"


We're talking about personal identity here. You're being unnecessarily specific. The [person who had my name and existed 10 minutes minutes ago] still exists, to a extremely close approximation. I share the *incredibly vast majority* of my attributes with that person, to the extent that I say that he *is* me, and if you copied him in some way, he would have the same 'weight' (moral and otherwise) that I do.

Now the question of whether or not cryonics (and cryonics advocacy) is 'utilitarian' depends a lot on your utility function. Transhumanists in general, and LWers in particular, generally are not fans of death, whether for themselves or others. Death is a *huge* negative in their utility function. Cryonics is an attempt to prevent death.

Lance wrote:If aliens were producing exact copies of me on another planet right now, freezing them, and unfreezing them a week from now, a year from now, etc.; those unfrozen me's would be more me now than the future me's causally connected to this particular body. Yet despite being "me", such copies pull no moral weight than any other people on earth. Why should I be particularly concerned with how similar certain people are to me at present? I don't care about those hypothetical copies any more than I care about random people on earth who are in no coherent sense "me", so why should I care about preserving future me's through cryopreservation?


Do you care more about yourself than you do these random people on earth?

Lance wrote:You say that "you *are" the same person"; yes, by this definition you are, but the sense in which you are the "same person" doesn't seem to me to be a reason to act with *special* regard for that person that's "me" at all. What the hell makes future persons that are similar to you so much more important than other future people that aren't you that the former justifies so much investment of resources at the expense of the interests of the latter? There doesn't seem to be to be any motivating sense in which these people that "are the same person as me" should matter.


This is correct if you care no more about yourself than others.
This is almost certainly false, however. *no-one* cares equally about themselves as others (Some people get pretty close though - if you're one of them, then your position is consistent, just not shared by many others)

There is an argument for cryonics being a very good utilitarian intervention, but that's generally not why people support it. People support it for the same reasons that they're willing to spend money on their medical issues, and on themselves in general.

Now cryonics advocacy is another issue. One point that needs to be made is that I think most people put cryonics advocacy in a *different category* than, say, donation decisions. It's not really a case of "should I convince this person to sign up for cryonics, or should I make some more effective charitable intervention", it's more like "should I convince this person to sign up for cryonics, or should I change the subject and talk about some random thing".

I'm not really sure what you mean by cryonics advocacy, though. I mean, there *are* people (like, say, the people who run Alcor, CI, etc) who support cryonics to a much greater degree, but they're hardly the majority, nor do they form any kind of LW consensus.
I think some explication of what you mean by cryonics advocacy would be helpful here (not in terms of a definition, more like a description of the sort of behavior you're talking about/criticizing. )
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T19:06:00

Lance wrote:
TSF wrote:Do you care more about yourself than you do these random people on earth?


Not morally. I don't think it would be ethical, if I had millions of dollars, to spend it on myself, and would probably not be motivated to. I probably would forego expensive end of life care for moral reasons, and feel the same way about cryonics. It's a selfish, unethical way to use additional resources, and I oppose it for that reason.

Furthermore, it's barely motivating at all. I just don't care about ensuring that at some point in the future there is some person who is "me" in a way that strikes me as totally irrelevant. The psychological pull of being concerned about "future me's" that will exist next year is strong, and heavily inclines me to act preferentially towards my "self". Cryonics doesn't do this, it lacks that intuitive pull. It doesn't feel, intuitively, like popping a pill to live forever. It feels more like dying and having a copy of me remade in the future, which isn't any morally different to me. That being said, I'm enslaved to my intuitions in this respect. If I could turn off my partiality towards myself by pushing a button, I would. I think preferring yourself and your friends and family is unethical.

A thought experiment helps illustrate why I don't think cryonics makes any sense as a motivating force and why I don't think people who are for it are really taking a deflationary view of personal identity seriously:

Imagine if you could engage in an extravagantly expensive, resource-heavy process of having a copy of you made 500 years from now. They do an atom-for-atom scan of your body, and, 500 years after you die, a replicator produces a copy of you.

This copy would be the same as me, so it would be me. I'd have been resurrected. Hell, they could make two copies, and I'd be double-resurrected! Why not, if I have enough money, invest in having as many copies of me made as possible?!

This isn't a remotely compelling prospect to me. Why would I care to do that? What would incline me to want to invest so much in ensuring that some time down the road some person exists that's more like me now? Using the definition of sameness given here, they would be the "same person" as me, but so what? WHY should that matter? I honestly don't give a shit about the replicator producing people that are more similar to me than someone else. And I don't think there's any principled difference between a replicator and using cryonics. Honestly, I'd prefer for them to produce people who are happier and healthier than I am. Only a weird, quasi-dualistic sense that somehow the ME right now would somehow survive would this really strike me as emotionally compelling and motivate me to want it.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-11T19:09:00

TSF wrote:
Lance wrote:dollars, to spend it on myself, and would probably not be motivated to. I probably would forego expensive end of life care for moral reasons, and feel the same way about cryonics. It's a selfish, unethical way to use additional resources, and I oppose it for that reason."

Just clarifying: Even is the treatment literally cured you, and you could look forward to a excellent quality of life for some time?

Lance wrote:"Furthermore, it's barely motivating at all. I just don't care about ensuring that at some point in the future there is some person who is "me" in a way that strikes me as totally irrelevant. The psychological pull of being concerned about "future me's" that will exist next year is strong, and heavily inclines me to act preferentially towards my "self".

"Cryonics doesn't do this, it lacks that intuitive pull. It doesn't feel, intuitively, like popping a pill to live forever. It feels more like dying and having a copy of me remade in the future"


Cryonicists maintain that these are functionally identical (although popping a pill to sleep and waking up in the future where you can live forever is a better analogy).

Lance wrote:I think preferring yourself and your friends and family is unethical.

Again, there are arguments that buying cryonics is the best intervention *regardless of who it is purchased for*, but I don't want to get into that here - perhaps separately.

A thought experiment helps illustrate why I don't think cryonics makes any sense as a motivating force and why I don't think people who are for it are really taking a deflationary view of personal identity seriously:

Imagine if you could engage in an extravagantly expensive, resource-heavy process of having a copy of you made 500 years from now. They do an atom-for-atom scan of your body, and, 500 years after you die, a replicator produces a copy of you.

This copy would be the same as me, so it would be me. I'd have been resurrected. Hell, they could make two copies, and I'd be double-resurrected! Why not, if I have enough money, invest in having as many copies of me made as possible?!

This isn't a remotely compelling prospect to me.


It is to us.

Lance wrote:Why would I care to do that? What would incline me to want to invest so much in ensuring that some time down the road some person exists that's more like me now? Using the definition of sameness given here, they would be the "same person" as me, but so what? WHY should that matter? I honestly don't give a shit about the replicator producing people that are more similar to me than someone else. And I don't think there's any principled difference between a replicator and using cryonics. Honestly, I'd prefer for them to produce people who are happier and healthier than I am. "

"Only a weird, quasi-dualistic sense that somehow the ME right now would somehow survive would this really strike me as emotionally compelling and motivate me to want it.


This is the claim, yes, but it's not at all quasi-dualistic. The Me of right now *would* survive, at least that is the claim. If such capability existed, it *would* be you surviving.

I'd also point out that cryonics *doesn't have to be* as resource intensive (in terms of money that is) as it is today. If serious economies of scale where in effect, it would be *far*, FAR cheaper.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby somervta on 2013-01-11T22:56:00

BTW, I am TSF in the above FB posts.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-12T13:09:00

(full name is in the first one, then I got lazy)
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Glacian on 2013-01-13T17:41:00

Hello! Thanks for moving the discussion. This is Lance from Facebook.

somervta/TSF: Just clarifying: Even is the treatment literally cured you, and you could look forward to a excellent quality of life for some time?


That's a good question - I may be compelled for selfish reasons to act in my own interests under those circumstances. I have no idea how committed I am to my morals when push comes to shove, but if I could push a button now that would force me not to if such circumstances ever arose, I would, which is my way of saying that I think such actions would be wrong and were I to act in that way it would be because I was overwhelmed by my self-preservation instincts. I don't accord them any moral weight, but see them as a problem to be overcome.

Cryonicists are absolutely right I think that getting frozen and unfrozen in the future really would feel just like what happens if you popped a pill to sleep and wake up later. But this continuity of consciousness is precisely what I think is illusory about personal identity. I don't see any difference from this and me being disintegrated 30 seconds from now and a copy of me made in the future. To the extent that I can emotionally divest myself from concern for future selves that are the result of reconstruction (those don't feel like me), I really don't assign more weight to them.

I have no particular interest in ensuring the the existence of copies of myself for precisely the same reason that I don't care about cryopreservation. There's an intuitive difference between acting in the interests of myself next week and myself post-cryo, and this is what allows me to override selfish impulses with respect to the latter. I have zero desire to inject my selfishness into decision making with respect to the latter; on the contrary, I'd rather remove the self-regarding disposition with respect to the former! So I'm stuck acting selfishly, and wrongly, about certain things (investing more in my own medical care, recreational activities, etc.) and not having any motivation to likewise act selfishly with respect to other actions (cryopreservation) because the latter doesn't tug on those processes in my brain compelling me to override my moral motivations with selfish motivations.

In a very real sense, I'm accusing people who are motivated to pursue cryopreservation of having a totally arbitrary interest: they are going out of their way to make sure future people exist who are more like them...for what reason, exactly? Substitute any other arbitrary fixture of your life as a future subject of replication, and it becomes absolutely silly: I live in the United States. It would be ridiculous to invest money in ensuring more people in the future live in the US for no particularly utilitarian-motivated reason at all. I happen to like wearing black clothing - should I ensure people in the future share a similar preference for wearing black? Investing additional resources in ensuring future people who are not me in any meaningful sense, since "me" simply means "similar to me", are simply more similar to me, entirely aside from the impact this has on utility, strikes me as a totally arbitrary, narcissistic motivation that I simply can't square with my views on personal identity. Cryopreservation is a silly, pointless investment that a person has little rational justification for pursuing.

Again, there are arguments that buying cryonics is the best intervention *regardless of who it is purchased for*, but I don't want to get into that here - perhaps separately.


Best in what respect? If it's actually the most economically viable bang for your buck, in terms of cost/benefit, then I'm entirely fine with it. What I don't understand, and one I am questioning, is assigning any special, additional weight to cryopreservation of one's "self", because I think such a motivation is weird and difficult to sustain if one holds the views I do about personal identity, and which the people at LessWrong generally speaking purportedly do as well. I'm fine with treating it like any other medical procedure, like cancer treatment, etc., but I want it evaluated in the same way as other medical interventions, where it should be evaluated in entirely in terms of its impact on promoting utility. There are utilitarian considerations where being the "same person" matters here. You can't just let someone's grandpa die, produce a totally different grandpa, and say "here you go! New grandpa!" Similarity matters in how others are psychologically bonded to that person, among other utilitarian-motivated factors.

It is to us.


I guess I don't understand why. I care about good experiences being experienced and bad experiences not being experienced. I don't care at all how similar the experiencers are to me. I certainly don't think there's any morally defensible rationale for caring about how similar they are to me. Similarity to me strikes me as irrelevant: it's just as psychologically inaccessible for me to have the experiences of a copy of me as it is for me to have the experiences of Barack Obama. Likewise, I will no more have access to the experiences of a cryopreserved "me" 500 years from now as I'll have access to the experiences of Alexander the Great...because that isn't how experience works. I don't assign more weigh to promoting Barack Obama's experiences being good ones, so why should I assign more weigh to promoting the interests of people closer in the "person design space" to the person I happen to be at this moment? This strikes me as one of the most blatantly arbitrary motivations a person could possibly have.

My suspicion is that despite explicitly sharing similar views on personal identity as me, other people retain pretheoretical motivations that existed before adopting a deflationary view of personal identity that in part may result from maintaining the use of the same terms even though they no longer mean the same thing by notions like "me" and being the "same person". I'm also an *eliminativist* about personal identity - I think we should drop discourse that claims that "I" exist in the future if I'm replicated, or that "I" am resurrected by a replication process carried out in the future, and use some new term that captures what deflationary views mean without distorting our intuitions by invoking traditional terms.

In the way you're using these terms, yes, it's obviously true that "I" exist if I have myself preserved, but I think maintaining traditional discourse here may cloud our intuitions about what matters. Every experiential moment is permanently sealed off from access to every other one, regardless of similarity, and for that reason, I see zero reason to assign higher weight to ones similar to mine. I think the LessWrong community is, as a result, maintaining arbitrary, indefensible priorities that can't be justified on ethical grounds and can't be rationally reconciled with their stated views on personal identity.

I'd also point out that cryonics *doesn't have to be* as resource intensive (in terms of money that is) as it is today.


Certainly, and if it becomes cost effective my ethical concerns with it would boil away and my concerns that such motivations were arbitrary and irrational wouldn't be important enough for me to comment on even if I thought they were still true. You're right the economy of scale could bring the price down, but I just don't think there's any pressing ethical reasons to promote increasing cryonics, given the net expense this would likely come at. I don't think it's the worst investment in the world; certainly, there are worse ways to spend your money, but my concern is that as the great enclave of rationality, cryonics shouldn't be given as high of a priority as it does on LessWrong; it just doesn't deserve the status it has there.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-16T18:23:00

In a desperate effort to reduce the proliferation of venues for a single discussion, and to preserve it here where I'll actually be able to find it in future, I'm going to link (and in next post reply to) the associated Less Wrong thread here.
Thankfully only one person has tried to address anything relevant to the above discussion, so I can easily paste his reply here as well:

Viliam_Bur wrote:You know, "politics is the mindkiller" is not only about the conventional meaning of the word "politics". It is about tribes and belonging. Right now you are conflicted as a member of two tribes, and you may feel pressured to choose your loyalty, and protect your status in the selected tribe. Which is not a good epistemic state.
Now on the topic:

Arepo wrote:Cryonics uses up far more resources (than cancer treatment)


Do we have any specific numbers here? I think the values for "cancer treatment" would depend on the exact kind of treatment and also how long the patient survives, but I don't have an estimate.

Arepo wrote:If cryonics works, (family and friends) still suffer the same (grief).


Wrong alief. Despite saying "if cryonics works" the author in the rest of the sentence still expects that it does not. Otherwise, they would also include the happiness of family and friends after the frozen person is cured. That is what "if cryonics works" means.

Expressed this way, it is like saying (for a conventional treatment of a conventional disease) that whether doctors can or cannot cure the disease there is no difference, because either way family and friends suffer grief for having the person taken to the hospital. Yes, they do. But in one case, the person also returns from the hospital. That's the whole point of taking people to hospitals, isn't it?

Arepo wrote:trying to integrate [cryonics] better into society uses up time and resources that could have been spent on higher expectation activities


Technically, by following this argument, we also should stop curing cancer, because that money could also be used for Givewell charities and animal welfare. Suddenly, this argument does not sound so appealing. Why? I guess because cryonics is far; curing a cancer (your, or in your family) is near; and Givewell charities are also far but less so than cryonics. Removing a near suffering feels more important than removing a far suffering. That's human; but let's not pretend that we did a utilitarian calculation here, if we actually used a completely different decision procedure.

...but you already said that.

I think that this discussion is mostly a waste of time, simply because your opponent's true rejection seems to be "cryonics does not work". And then all is written under this alief. Under this alief the arguments make sense: if the cryonics does not work, of course wasting money on cryonics is stupid. But instead of saying this openly, there is a rationalization about why utilitarians should do this and shouldn't do that, by pretending that we have numbers that prove "utility(cancer cure) > utility(animal welfare) > utility(cryonics)". Also, when discussing cryonics, you are supposed to be a perfect utilitarian and willing to sacrifice your life for someone else's greater benefit, but you are allowed to make a selfish exception from perfect utilitarianism when curing your cancer.

For me, the only interesting argument was the one that a smart human in a pre-Singularity world is more useful than a smart human in a post-Singularity world, therefore curing smart people now is more useful than freezing them and curing them in future.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-16T19:37:00

Villiam_Bur wrote:Do we have any specific numbers here? I think the values for "cancer treatment" would depend on the exact kind of treatment and also how long the patient survives, but I don't have an estimate.


I tried a while ago to get a sense of the resource costs of cryonics from their websites, but they revealed little on the subject – IIRC they didn’t even reveal the actual charge for it. Now there seems to be a bit more info on the latter at least. The Cryonics Institute suggests an average of about US$80-90K, which it also claims ‘is generally covered by life insurance’. That’s going to depend on the country you’re in though, and presumably comes with heavy caveats – if you’re planning to have yourself frozen assuming you die from a common cause, insurers will have to charge you (slightly more than) the full cost of the suspension over the course of your expected lifespan. So I think we can still assume it’s you paying that cost.

On actual resource use I have no idea, and it’s relevant to how long they’ll be able to suspend you for – if by some future point the technology necessary to revive you hasn’t been invented, they’ll have to pull the plug to avoid/because of bankruptcy. Would be interesting for someone who knows more about the process to run a Fermi calc.

Cancer treatment costs are again non-trivial to find and will obviously depend on type of cancer, location etc. The best I could find from a quick Google is an abstract claiming US breast cancer treatments cost $US20 000 to $US100 000 over a person’s lifetime (which sounds like a funny statistic if ever I heard one – presumably there’s a strong positive correlation between the cost you pay over your lifetime for treatment and how much longer it makes your lifetime.

Anyway, at first glance, ‘cancer treatment’ in the US looks to be in the order of US$25,000, or 30 dead children cheaper than cryonics. Happy to be corrected on this.

But that may all be less relevant than resource use (or rather, the cost in diverted utilons), which I don’t know how to begin guesstimating, since the financial cost of a given resource is attached far more to its current availability than to how many utilons better management of that resource would have gained.

What makes me think cryonics would cost more in this sense is the ongoing power drain for running the freezers, whereas the cost of cancer treatment mainly comes from the human resources needed to develop and apply it, and while human resources are just as easily divertable as any other, we’re not about to hit peak HR, so the financialcost:utiloncost ratio of HR isn’t likely to get significantly worse in the next few decades.

Wrong alief.


‘Alief’? It’s like being back in the school playground…

Despite saying "if cryonics works" the author in the rest of the sentence still expects that it does not. Otherwise, they would also include the happiness of family and friends after the frozen person is cured. That is what "if cryonics works" means.


As Daniel said on LW, this reasoning only holds if all the relevant family and friends are also suspended and revived (and then the same reasoning applies to all them, and all their family and friends – ie all the socially networked people in the world).

We can still assume whatever proportion of grief from those who aren’t will still be felt - that is, (socially networked people who’re cryonically frozen)/(people in their social network), ie approximately 1, since the numerator drags the denominator up with it.

(It might actually be greater than 1 given that revivees now also get to feel grief for loved ones who weren’t suspended with them)

Technically, by following this argument, we also should stop curing cancer, because that money could also be used for Givewell charities and animal welfare. Suddenly, this argument does not sound so appealing.


It still sounds very appealing to me. This was actually raised by somervta/TSF above, and he dropped the criticism on the grounds that I was happy to follow the argument to this extent.

Am I really claiming that I’d turn down cancer treatment? No (well, maybe, for self-interested reasons – re-see this account of the unpleasant death it entails. And at some stage if the costs mounted up, maybe I'd have the conviction to put my philosophy over my instincts. But I’m happy to assume I wouldn’t for this discussion)

I might need to if we were discussing the merits of cryonics itself - and for the record, if we were, I would no more condemn someone who sought solace in being frozen than I would someone who’d seek cancer treatment for the same reason - but we’re actually discussing cryonics advocacy*. So the appropriate analogy would be ‘in a world where most people didn’t bother seeking cancer treatment, we should spend our efforts persuading them to do so, rather than putting them into Givewell charities and animal welfare (or AI research, come to that)’.

I don’t normally like reductio ad absurdum arguments for precisely the reason that they instafail if the person you’re discussing them with doesn’t think your conclusion is absurd, but I hope we can agree that that wouldn’t be advisable. After all, some people in this world don’t seek scientifically proven cancer treatment, and none of us think that doing so is a good use of our time.

And, because it’s not about personal cryonics but cryonics advocacy, it’s not about self-interest – it’s about trying to persuade people who don’t currently suffer enough from the thought of death to want to go for cryonics that they should do something highly non-optimal (from an ethical perspective) with their money that on a sensible (ie deflationary) view personal of personal identity gains them nothing.

I think that this discussion is mostly a waste of time, simply because your opponent's true rejection seems to be "cryonics does not work".


Given that nothing I've argued hinges on the success or failure of cryonics, this is a fanciful - and IMO revealing - effort to poison the well.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby somervta on 2013-01-17T15:30:00

Some other relevant things said over at LessWrong:
ChristianKi points out that the number of LWers who have actually signed up for cryonics is comparatively small (source:http://lesswrong.com/lw/fp5/2012_survey_results/), However, JoshuaZ responds that LWers tend to be young and healthy, so might not sign up (now). Also, assigning high probability to a near singularity means some might not expect to die (or expect to be wiped out)

Gwern points out Yvains writing on this issue, and reccommends his and 'unnamed comments (http://squid314.livejournal.com/349656.html)

Eliezer Yudkowsky notes that he feels no grief when somebody is cryosuspended (really: "Seriously, I don't, so far as I can tell. I feel awful when I read about someone who wasn't cryosuspended." elaboration at http://lesswrong.com/lw/gbt/discussion_ ... cifia/8ald)

DaFranker also points out the dependency on "whether IsFrozen() is closer to IsDead() or to IsSleeping() (or IsOnATrip() or something similar implying prolonged period of no-contact) in the synaptic thought infrastructure {Caveat about his neurological knowledge} and experience processing of any person's brain."

DanielLC also says that the pain of grief isn't comparable to death, a note on which I would like to expand. It is my experience that LWers place considerable negative utility on death itself. An individuals death has negative terminal utility for them/us. (Remember that the utilitarianism being use is not strict act, rule or preference utilitarianism). Cryonics proposes a potential end to death itself (or at least a massive postponement), and this is a huge thing from their (our? I'm not really sure what pronouns I should be using here) viewpoint.


*Note: I don't think the OP wants this to turn into a discussion about the merits of the different moral theories, so if my language seems unclear, i can taboo and reduce.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-17T15:52:00

I'm a big fan of Yvain's stuff, so read that with interest, but I think the piece he links to in that blog post is more relevant still:

http://lesswrong.com/lw/bg0/cryonics_wi ... urrection/

Re your last comment I've laid out my main argument, so feel free to take this thread anywhere you're interested in it going.

It is my experience that LWers place considerable negative utility on death itself.


Yeah, it seems like a significant proportion do. And I think doing so necessarily entails poorly thought out ethics/metaphysics.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby somervta on 2013-01-17T16:06:00

Cryonicists are absolutely right I think that getting frozen and unfrozen in the future really would feel just like what happens if you popped a pill to sleep and wake up later. But this continuity of consciousness is precisely what I think is illusory about personal identity. I don't see any difference from this and me being disintegrated 30 seconds from now and a copy of me made in the future. To the extent that I can emotionally divest myself from concern for future selves that are the result of reconstruction (those don't feel like me), I really don't assign more weight to them.


We agree - we just think there is something meaningful about the 'copy', that the copy is you in the same way you are now.
You should have interest in the copies of yourself for the same reason you should have interest in the cryosuspended fversion of yourself for the same reason you have interest in yourself now. You seem to think personal identity doesn't exist (we disagree), but I doubt you act this way, and this is partially what Villiam was talking about when he mentioned belief-alief divergence.
There's an intuitive difference between acting in the interests of myself next week and myself post-cryo

We maintain that this intuition is a false one, that there is no relevant difference between a perfectly preserved you that is revived and the you that will exist a few moments in the future. (this consideration is mitigated by your desire to remove the selfishness you have for yourself in the present or in the future.

I'd rather remove the self-regarding disposition with respect to the former! So I'm stuck acting selfishly, and wrongly, about certain things (investing more in my own medical care, recreational activities, etc.)

again, +1 for consistency. The practice of cryonics exists because of the lack of this desire in others.

In a very real sense, I'm accusing people who are motivated to pursue cryopreservation of having a totally arbitrary interest: they are going out of their way to make sure future people exist who are more like them...for what reason, exactly?

It isn't arbitrary, it's the same reason that they care about their present selves, as I hope I've shown. the reduction of identity to similarity of brain-states does not mean that identity itself disappears! I think that it is this:
if one holds the views I do about personal identity, and which the people at LessWrong generally speaking purportedly do as we

that is false, and creates the confusion.


There are utilitarian considerations where being the "same person" matters here. You can't just let someone's grandpa die, produce a totally different grandpa, and say "here you go! New grandpa!" Similarity matters in how others are psychologically bonded to that person, among other utilitarian-motivated factors.


Again, the argument is that it wouldn't be a totally different grandpa.

I care about good experiences being experienced and bad experiences not being experienced.

This is not all there is to LW metaethics.

I'm also an *eliminativist* about personal identity - I think we should drop discourse that claims that "I" exist in the future if I'm replicated, or that "I" am resurrected by a replication process carried out in the future, and use some new term that captures what deflationary views mean without distorting our intuitions by invoking traditional terms.

I am not, and I don't think many LWers are. I begin to think that this use of the term 'deflationary' is not useful - I don't think you mean what I thought you did by it.

Your Second post:


I have no reason to quibble with your cancer numbers. Background on cryonics: neuropresevation is generally <$100,000, although it goes as low as 30K for some organizations. Full-body is ~$200,000, but my understanding is that it's rare and I've seen the response "What's the point?" several times.


Are you unaware of the use and meaning of 'alief', or just objecting to it's application to you?

As Daniel said on LW, this reasoning only holds if all the relevant family and friends are also suspended and revived (and then the same reasoning applies to all them, and all their family and friends – ie all the socially networked people in the world).

Not necessarily - see Eliezer's (and other's) point about the difference between death and going away to a far-off land - cryonics is like this, even to unfrozen loved ones (assuming the same views on personal identity - a nontrivial assumption)

Again - the grief felt isn't the only consideration - the fact that someone doesn't have to die is incredibly important. I can't stress that enough.

Am I really claiming that I’d turn down cancer treatment?

I think the point was more like "are you really claiming people should turn down cancer treatment (and give the money to Givewell charities)

Your point is taken about cryonics advocacy, and as I'm not a cryonics advocate exactly, there's not much I can do other than to point out two things:
1. The death aspect I've already mentioned,
and 2. when people advocate cryonics (and this also applies to signing up), it's not about "cryonics V optimal charities" it's about "cryonics V relative waste". Cryonics is generally paid for through life insurance, which would generally not be anywhere near optimally used except if the deceased was an optimal charity person already. the cryonics money comes out of a different "box" than donation money - it's seen as money spent on oneself, or the time spent talking to someone is seen as time spent for something else (not this though - this is considered (by me) to be fun discussion/sharingviews/elucidating time)

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby somervta on 2013-01-17T16:09:00

also notice the view of identity Yvain lays out in the post you linked to (he calls it a consequentialist view of identity. It seems obviously distinct from your own, and is probably a lot closer to 'mainstream' LW views than anything you (or I for that matter - he's a much better writer than I) have said.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-01-17T17:29:00

Yeah. That's where I'd depart from him. I don't think it's really a view of identity so much as the absence of one - he never really makes any claims about what identity is, other than the tacit assumption that it's something important enough to be worth some consideration.

Whatever his views, calling them consequentialist seems to generate needless ambiguity since they don't seem to imply or follow from ethical consequentialism.

I begin to think that this use of the term 'deflationary' is not useful - I don't think you mean what I thought you did by it.


I created a link to the only formal definition I know of it online further up, though it's slightly hidden in the reply tree of the first few posts. I think it's a useful term - it refers to quite a well-defined and discrete view by philosophical standards.

(btw, I think your last major post blended me and Lance into one person. Perhaps deliberately, given the subject matter? ;))
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Glacian on 2013-01-21T19:56:00

we just think there is something meaningful about the 'copy', that the copy is you in the same way you are now.


Alright, so we agree on all that. Why, then, do you think there is something meaningful about the 'copy'? I simply see no reason to be concerned about such copies, and cannot fathom why you or anyone else would. I understand that this doesn't make your position incorrect, irrational, or anything else, but it strikes me as so flagrantly arbitrary that the only way to describe my reaction is total incredulity that anyone could hold such views. The only similarity I can see between the way you would be using terms like "the same person" or "that person would be 'me'" is in name only. I simply do not care if people in the future are "me" in virtue of having a similar constitution (psychological or otherwise). Why on earth would that matter to you? I'm not questioning your views on personal identity. I'm questioning why, in light of them, acting in your interests is motivating.

Suppose you were tasked with producing one of two new worlds. In one world, everyone would be a copy of you now, with all your human suboptimality for quality experiences. In the second world, some other person, who is very different from you, but who has a host of amazing, incredible experiences that are vastly superior overall to yours is replicated instead, and the world is populated an equal number of copies of that person instead of copies of you. After you push the button, the body you push it with, the "you" right now, is instantly annihilated and the other world is instantly created, with the copies of you exactly replicating you post-button-push.

Personally, my only concern is: which of these potential copies has the best experiences? Whichever it is, I want as many copies of that individual to be replicated. How similar those copies are to me at this moment doesn't add any weight whatsoever in their favor. No decisions I ever make will actually benefit "me" in any sense I care about - they always benefit me, but benefiting me doesn't seem any different from benefiting someone else. Whoever they are, whether they are "me", or "George Washington", I will never have their experiences, since experiencing doesn't work that way. So why care more about promoting the quality of the experiences of future similar persons (or "you") than for someone totally different? Why on earth would similarity count for anything? It is totally unfathomable to me how I could possibly care how similar they were. If you do care, is there any reason for this other than you just do, simpliciter?

For that matter, do you assign greater and lesser degrees of partiality with respect to how you favor others to the extent that those others are similar to you? Suppose, for instance, that in the future we could make copies of other people, and a copy of you had been made and sent out into the world 20 years ago, but was by this point quite different from you, but still much more similar than anyone else on earth. Would this person be assigned especially high weight to you, because they were a "near-you"? Would the extent to which you cared about such copies be a function of how long ago they were copied and how much you knew about how the differences in their experiences caused differences in them relative to you? For my part, I wouldn't care any more for someone who is closer to me in persons design space but too far away to be "me" than I do for a complete stranger. And I think anyone who seriously did would be extremely weird - I also suspect nobody would, in fact, do this, and that similarity to you, what you use as your definition of a person being the same as you isn't your real reason for claiming to care about acting in 'your interests'.

In other words, I suspect that some form of crypto-dualism or some other confusion underwrites your, and most others, purported interest in promoting themselves, and this can be seen by their motivational inconsistencies when faced with live options to promote the interests of others who are "them" but whose conscious experiences are clearly closed off to them. In other words, I don't think you actually care about how similar a person is to you even to the extent that you'd be comfortable saying that person is you. This is, on my part, speculation about your underlying concerns. I do not intend this to be taken as any sort of substantive critique or to be taken personally or anything like that. I'm merely stating what I suspect is going on here.

You seem to think personal identity doesn't exist (we disagree)


I don't see any difference in our views on personal identity, so I'm not sure this is accurate. I don't know quite what it would mean to say "personal identity doesn't exist"; as far as I can tell I have yet to note any differences in our views about the way reality is that actually differ. I would be happy to run with saying that personal identity (in the substantive sense) "doesn't exist", for the same reasons I'd say "moral realism is false", but the only moral realisms I'm all that confident in rejecting are ones subject to error theories, and thus some form of moral realism isn't necessarily false.

The real difference appears to me that I don't care about what you claim to care about, not that I think it "doesn't exist". But perhaps this is what I am confused about, and my presumption that we share the same views on personal identity is mistaken. Perhaps discussing this can uncover the source of our disagreement, though I think it's likely either that a) we just have different values, and neither of us is actually wrong about anything or b) My diagnosis of what underlies the motivations of others is accurate and if they were more rational they'd agree with me.

You should have interest in the copies of yourself for the same reason you should have interest in the cryosuspended fversion of yourself for the same reason you have interest in yourself now.


...What reason is that? I don't have any special reason for preferring myself now. The only reason I endorse making self-regarding actions is because I'm in a position to do so and others are not; e.g. it's, in simplistic terms, "utility maximizing" for much of my behavior to be self-interested, and most of my motivation is probably not because of that, but due to non-overridable selfishness or akrasia.

We maintain that this intuition is a false one, that there is no relevant difference between a perfectly preserved you that is revived and the you that will exist a few moments in the future.


I agree, and wasn't disagreeing with that comment. My apologies if I suggested I was actually endorsing the intuition as true. I was merely reporting my gut reaction to these considerations.

Again, the argument is that it wouldn't be a totally different grandpa.


I meant to suggest that a person were not given a copy or even a similar grandpa, but someone who was, in fact, a very different person, with a different personality, etc. which I had hoped was clear from describing them as "totally different". My apologies if that wasn't conveyed clearly enough.

This is not all there is to LW metaethics.


As far as I can tell I reject LW metaethics.

I am not, and I don't think many LWers are. I begin to think that this use of the term 'deflationary' is not useful - I don't think you mean what I thought you did by it.


You may be right that "deflationary" doesn't help here, but nonetheless I do think I mean what you think I do, and that my eliminativism is something independent of the deflationary aspect of my view.

I'm willing to use personal identity discourse and think it can and does accurately track something real - I don't think anything you've said so far about personal identity is wrong, in fact. I just think that it tends to entangle our thought processes with other uses of the term that lead to confusions, and that we should adopt a new discourse that evades this problem. I feel the same way about "free will"; I don't think what compatibilists say is necessarily false. I just don't see why they want to use that word in particular, given the persistent, pointless debates it tends to stir up.

Your Second post:


...Just to be clear, I don't see any names here, but the rest of your response isn't addressing anything I've said.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Recumbent on 2013-05-27T17:10:00

I am an engineer/economist, so I will stay out of the philosophical debate on the value of the self. But if one presupposes that a good life year (DALY) produced by a cancer treatment and a DALY later enabled by cryonics are equal, we can run some approximate numbers. Disclaimer: I am in Alcor cryonicist, but I was basically convinced by this economic analysis.
The standard number for saving a life in the US is about $5 million, so if this corresponds to a 50 year life expansion (like accidents), it is about $100,000 per DALY). Depending on the cancer treatment and the stage, I believe that cancer treatment can be significantly worse than this (remember that the extended years due to cancer treatment are not fully good because there is a lot of suffering involved), but let's optimistically use $100,000 per DALY.
Now let's considered cryonics. Neuro preservation is only around $100,000, but if you do it now, you have significant membership fees. As someone pointed out, you pay more expected for the life insurance than your payout. The number of cryonics this is growing, so there are economies of scale of the liquid nitrogen preservation. However, the more important factor is that the medical costs of preservation are growing rapidly, so let's use $200,000 for the cost. So basically this means if your expected years of life extension from cryonics is greater than two years, then this is a more cost-effective way of extending your life by things like air bags and cancer treatment. Below I will argue that it is actually more like an order of magnitude or greater more cost-effective than these interventions.
How many years of life extension should we expect from cryonics? First there is the probability of it working. There are many failure scenarios, like the organization going out of business (which did happen when cryonics was not fully funded upfront), global catastrophic risks, the person dying in a way that does not allow preservation, something going wrong during revival, etc. Pessimists might put the overall probability of it being successful at 1%, but I think 10% is more reasonable.
Then there is the question of number of years given successful reanimation. Given the biological human scenario, if we were able to solve aging, and we died just due to accidents, we would have a life expectancy of about 500 years. There is the argument that even if we stayed "young" there still could be a cumulative damage that gets us. However, in the future we would probably continue to get better at reducing the accident risk, and with a longer life expectancy, I think that people would become more risk averse. Then there is the doomsday argument that could shorten the number of years to live somewhat. So I think several hundred years is reasonable in the scenario. Thus, for the pessimist, the cost-effectiveness could be on par with airbags, but my estimate is more like an order of magnitude more cost-effective than airbags. However, if we go to the computer consciousness scenario, things get much more promising. I don't want to get into detailed debates here on how the doomsday argument may or may not apply, but suffice to say that if you had a 1% chance of going to computer consciousness is that could be backed up and diversified spatially, and possibly experience many more years per calendar year, you can get many many expected years of life. This would be much more cost-effective per DALY even than GiveWell.
The other major point I will make here is that if people think they could actually live much longer, they will be more interested in reducing existential risks. This is not a big factor for young people who believe in the near singularity, but it is a big factor for most people. Since I believe that the future will be net positive, and since I is assign a non-negligible probability to the singularity, existential risk is extremely underinvested in, and therefore extremely cost effective (see viewtopic.php?f=25&t=484). Therefore, I would argue that donations to cryonics organizations or advocating for cryonics would actually be more cost-effective than GiveWell. This might even be true in the biological scenario given a reasonable chance of space colonization. However, the most cost-effective would be directly reducing existential risk, which is what I try to do.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby DanielLC on 2013-05-27T17:39:00

Why, then, do you think there is something meaningful about the 'copy'?


Most everyone considers the copy of them that exists a few seconds in the future to be important. If a copy just as similar exists further in the future, why would this be any different?
Consequentialism: The belief that doing the right thing makes the world a better place.

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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Arepo on 2013-06-14T14:02:00

DanielLC wrote:Most everyone considers the copy of them that exists a few seconds in the future to be important.


That's where I think they go wrong. What would 'important' even mean to a utilitarian in this context?
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby DanielLC on 2013-06-15T01:48:00

What would 'important' even mean to a utilitarian in this context?


Most people value the copy of themselves that exists a few seconds into the future more than other people. In a less egoist example, most people value having copies be linearly attached into long lines.
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Re: Against cryonics advocacy

Postby Ruairi on 2013-07-01T11:58:00

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